On May 22, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its official outlook for the 2025 hurricane season, projecting a 60% chance of above-normal activity. The forecast includes:

• 13 to 19 named storms
• 6 to 10 hurricanes
• 3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

This anticipated increase in storm activity is largely driven by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico - especially in the Main Development Region between the Canary Islands and the Yucatán Peninsula, a key area for storm formation.

CSU, a leader in hurricane prediction, issued a forecast in early May, including:

• 17 named storms (vs. a historical average of 14.4)
• 9 hurricanes (vs. 7.2 average)
• 4 major hurricanes (vs. 3.2 average)

In addition, the projected Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) - which measures the intensity and lifespan of storms - is set at 155, well above the average of 123. This signals the potential for stronger, more long-lasting systems in 2025.

Unusual Ocean Temperatures in the Atlantic

One surprising factor this year is cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. Unlike recent years marked by record-breaking warmth, current ocean temperatures are running about 2°F cooler than usual for spring.

This shift is likely due to a persistent high-pressure system near Bermuda, which is creating stronger easterly trade winds. These winds increase upwelling, a process that brings colder, deeper water to the surface. 

While cooler waters may suggest a slower start to the season, it’s important to note that temperatures can rise quickly in June and July - just as they did in 2019 before Hurricane Dorian, one of the strongest storms on record.

ENSO-Neutral Conditions: A Wildcard for Hurricane Season 2025

Another critical factor this year is the absence of El Niño or La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, known as ENSO-neutral conditions. Without the wind-suppressing effects of El Niño, the Atlantic tends to experience more favorable conditions for hurricane development, including calmer upper-level winds that allow storms to strengthen more easily.

The Growing Threat of Rapid Intensification

One of the most concerning trends in recent hurricane seasons is rapid intensification - when a storm's wind speed increases by 35 mph or more within 24 hours. We've seen this in recent years with Hurricanes Irma, Ian, and Idalia.

According to Robbie Berg, Warning Coordination Meteorologist for the National Hurricane Center, this phenomenon poses serious risks for communities across the U.S., the Caribbean, and Central America. A storm that appears mild one day could suddenly escalate to a Category 5, leaving little time for preparation or evacuation.

Start Preparing Now for Hurricane Season 2025

Hurricane season officially peaks later in the summer, but the time to prepare is now. At Flood Response Assistance, we help businesses and communities stay operational and protected with:

• 24/7 flood emergency services
• Custom flood preparedness plans
• Rapid deployment flood barrier solutions
• Maintenance and support all season long

With early signs pointing to an active season and unpredictable weather patterns already forming, proactive flood protection is more important than ever.

Stay ahead of the storm. Contact Flood Response Assistance today to get hurricane ready.